The news keeps getting worse for Genentech. On the heels of the announcement that the National Institutes of Health would fund a study comparing the efficacy of Lucentis® and Avastin® (see "Retinal Specialist on the Avastin®/Lucentis® Controversy"), Genentech disclosed the results of an Avastin® study done by its parent company, Roche Holdings Ltd. of Switzerland. In this study, Avastin® treatment was shown to be just as effective in lung cancer patients using half the recommended dose as it is with the full dose. Treating with half the recommended dose would drop the cost, and hence Genentech's revenues, from $8,800/month to $4,400/month, threatening a franchise worth about $3 million yearly (a number expected to grow as the U.S. population continues to age).
The only silver lining is that the Roche study did not present evidence on the effects of the lower dose on long-term survival. Although patients treated in the study with the lower dose showed not difference in mortality, the length of the study was insufficient to establish no difference over a longer timeframe. Thus, low dosing comprises a risk for cancer patients, which may inhibit the 75% of oncologists who have not switched to the lower dose from doing so. In any event, this study continues to threaten Genentech's newfound dominance as the market leader in U.S. biotechnology companies.
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